Liverpool’s form this season has raised uncomfortable questions about Arne Slot’s long-term future at Anfield. After last year’s title win, expectations were always going to be high, but inconsistent performances have shifted the narrative from patience to pressure. Although he does not appear on the very brink of the sack, just how much danger is the Dutchman currently in?
Some Goodwill Remains
If this were Arne Slot’s first season in charge, he might already have been sacked, but guiding Liverpool to a league title last year has bought him more patience than would normally be afforded. While former glories do not make any manager immune from the axe, it allows Slot to make a stronger case as to why he should be given more time to turn things around.
Liverpool’s strong performance in the Champions League also helps Slot’s case as the Reds finished third in the league phase, ensuring safe passage to the last 16. Finally, the Dutchman will also have been cut some slack due to Liverpool’s squad situation this season. Despite spending big in the summer, Slot has been very short on defenders and has had to deal with the unexpected, but very real decline of the usually so prolific Mo Salah.
No Trigger-Happy Culture
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Some clubs are willing to sack managers after a relatively short blip in form and will cycle through a new face every season or two. Liverpool has not had such a culture, though. In the FSG era, there have only been four managers other than Slot. Of these, Roy Hodgson, Kenny Dalglish and Brendan Rodgers faced the axe.
Hodgson lasted 31 games despite a win rate of just 41.9%. Dalglish had 74 matches and was only dismissed after league finishes of eighth and seventh. Rodgers was backed after finishing second in his first season and remained in charge despite finishing sixth the year after.
Some clubs may even have sacked Klopp in 2022/23, as that year he guided pre-season title hopefuls to a fifth-place finish, the first time since 2016 that Liverpool failed to qualify for the Champions League. However, an abundance of goodwill meant he was never in any real danger of being booted out. Slot does not have Klopp’s historical credit, but the culture of patience still matters
Alonso’s Availability Increases the Pressure
Xabi Alonso’s departure from Real Madrid has changed the dynamic. Liverpool now face a situation where a highly rated manager, with a strong emotional and historical connection to the club, is available. Managers often survive poor periods because there is no obvious upgrade on the market, but this is not the case here.
The Spaniard is trading at the 1/2 favourite to become Liverpool’s next permanent manager. Some feel it is inevitable that it will happen; it’s just a matter of when. Although the powers that be at Liverpool will not rush into any decision, an underwhelming finish to the campaign would make it a lot easier for them to replace Slot and bring in Alonso.
Should Slot finish the campaign strongly, however, making such a swap will be much harder to justify and represent a much larger risk.
What Will Save Slot?
| Competition | Current Status |
|---|---|
| Premier League | 6th |
| Champions League | Last 16 |
| FA Cup | 4th Round |
| League Cup | Eliminated |
As nice as an FA Cup win would be, it is unlikely to have a major impact on Slot’s future. A win in the Champions League would go a long way, but winning this competition is extremely difficult and should not be seen as a realistic goal this campaign. So, what it really boils down to is league performance and being able to qualify for next season’s Champions League through that.
The good news is that a top-five finish will likely be enough to secure CL qualification based on how current coefficients are looking. However, limping over the line by narrowly securing fifth might be sufficiently unconvincing that Slot gets replaced by Alonso. To stand a better chance of avoiding this scenario, Slot will need a comfortable top-four finish to show he has steadied the ship at Anfield.
Race for Top 4
Liverpool remain firmly in the fight for the top four and are within touching distance of Chelsea and United above them. The race is tight and could go down to the final weeks of the season. If Slot can guide Liverpool past the pair, his case to stay on becomes significantly stronger. A sixth-place finish (or worse), meanwhile, will surely see the former Feyenoord manager sent packing.
| Position | Team | Matches Played | Points | Goal Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3rd | Aston Villa | 26 | 50 | +10 |
| 4th | Man United | 26 | 45 | +10 |
| 5th | Chelsea | 26 | 44 | +17 |
| 6th | Liverpool | 26 | 42 | +6 |
Bottom Line
Slot’s future is not yet in full crisis mode, but it does not look secure. A strong finish to the league season could be enough to protect his position, but continued mixed results may see him kicked out at the end of the campaign, or possibly even earlier. With Xabi Alonso available and viewed by many as a natural long-term fit, the margin for error is small.