Following the departure of Jürgen Klopp, many Liverpool fans were perhaps not expecting too much from his season. Klopp’s replacement, Arne Slot, arrived at Anfield as something of an unknown and this was coupled with the club making just one addition to the squad in the transfer window – Federico Chiesa. Despite this, the new king of the Kop has exceeded expectations and has Liverpool in serious trophy contention this year.
Even the Champions League title is hardly out of the question. In fact, as we reached mid-December the Merseysiders found themselves as the 4/1 favourites to go all the way in the competition. This represents quite the drop as you could find them trading as long as 14/1 before the tournament kicked-off. With Liverpool fans daring to believe their side could collect a seventh Champions League title, let us assess if they could pull it off, and what would be required.
Champions League – League Phase Performances
After six league phase games Liverpool are the only team with a perfect record left intact. Interestingly, their six wins from six has not quite mathematically guaranteed their passage to the last 16 but it is almost impossible to imagine them slipping out of the top eight places. It is not as though the Reds have faced easy opposition in their opening six clashes either. Away to RB Leipzig and AC Milan, plus home clashes against Bayer Leverkusen and Real Madrid, represent stiff tests but the Reds always found a way to finish on top.
Solid Defense
What has been particularly impressive about Arne Slot’s side is how solid they have been defensively. Since conceding three minutes into their opening fixture with AC Milan, the Reds have not let another goal in. That is 537 minutes of elite-level competition without letting in a single goal. No team in the Champions League has a better defensive record and the only side with a tied record, Inter Milan, have had to sacrifice attacking threat for their defensive stability. This is not true for Liverpool though, who have netted almost twice (13) as many goals as the Italian champions (7).
Positive Stats
Have the Reds earned their formidable record though or have they been a bit lucky? Well, there is often an element of fortune when you have such a superb record but the underlying stats still look very good for Liverpool. After six league phase games, their total of 14.8 expected goals is second only to Bayern Munich who are on 15.8. In terms of expected goals against, Liverpool’s 5.3 is only narrowly bettered by Atalanta (5.2), Arsenal (4.9) and PSG (4.4). Note that this data is provided by FBref and does show that Liverpool have markedly outperformed their expected goals against.
When combing these together, Liverpool’s expected goal difference per 90 minutes is +1.59, putting them second only behind Bayern. What this suggests, as anyone watching Liverpool matches can attest, is that the Reds have not fluked their way to the top of the table(s). They are a team playing some very good football and are probably the side everyone else in the competition most wants to avoid.
European Experience
Some people might be questioning if Liverpool can continue with their impressive displays once the pressure cranks up in the knockout phases. It is one thing to win a relatively low-pressure league phase game, where you can afford a couple of bad results, but the knockout stages are far less forgiving. Even if the Reds do fall in the knockout stage though, it is hard to think it will be anything to do with their mentality.
For one, many of the players in the Liverpool squad have so much Champions League experience already. This is not a young team enjoying their first European adventure but rather a squad containing lots of seasoned pros who have experienced many a knockout tie. Additionally, Liverpool have shown no element of ‘bottling’ in the big domestic fixtures this season. They secured a very useful point away at Arsenal in a 2-2 draw and bagged home wins against Chelsea and Man City. Klopp might not be at Anfield any longer but this winning, ‘never-say-die’ mentality he helped instil is being kept alive by Arne Slot.
Who Could Stop Liverpool?
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The reason Liverpool approached the festive period as Champions League favourites is largely because of their ability but partly because the competition is not as strong as it has been. Looking at the other teams high up the betting and none of them seem particularly formidable. Arsenal are among the top picks but they not been as impressive as last season due to struggles creating chances from open play. Their defensive solidity will make them a tough side to beat but they do not seem to have the same attacking firepower as some of the other contenders.
Real Madrid
You would be foolish to write off 15-time champions Real Madrid despite their humbling 4-0 defeat at Anfield but it is fair to say they are not looking overly imposing either. Los Blancos have been struggling to find a way to fit Mbappé into their attack and they also have three defenders out long-term with injuries. They have been masters of winning despite not playing too well in this competition in recent years but you would probably not back them in a Liverpool rematch.
Barcelona, Bayern Munich & Man City
The other three main contenders are Barcelona, Bayern Munich and Manchester City. In the case of City, their hopes seemingly rest on finding an adequate Rodri replacement in January as they have looked lost without him. There is an outside chance he may return before the end of the season but can City stay alive in the CL that long?
Bayern Munich will be a definite threat, as their underlying stats suggest, but Vincent Kompany’s complete inexperience as a manager on the European stage may work against him. Lastly, we have Barcelona, who can look incredible on their day, such as during the 4-1 dismantling of Bayern Munich, but on other occasions, they can be very frustrating. Going all the way in a knockout tournament requires a level of consistency this young Barca side may not have just yet.
Looking Good for the Reds
Liverpool’s impressive start to the season both at home and in Europe has resulted in a huge cut of their odds to win this season’s Champions League. If Arne Slot can avoid having to deal with an injury crisis throughout the knockout stages, the Reds have the ability and mentality to beat any team on their day. It is always a tough tournament to win, and this year will be no exception, but when you look around at the competition it is reasonable to think that Liverpool could go all the way.