Let’s face it: being a Liverpool fan isn’t easy. They like to make things as tough as possible… and when it’s all reaching the most important stages of a match or tournament, there’s always something that happens that makes it all a little bit too uncomfortable. I mean, even though they’re a decent way ahead in the EPL, they’re still managing to keep us guessing and nervous.
One of the things that always makes us slightly nervous before the game kicks off is when it becomes known that Alisson Becker is out injured. Because, realistically, when he’s missing from the starting lineup, it’s more than just a minor team adjustment—it can be a potential game-changer – and often, the football betting odds will reflect his omission. Since he joined the Reds in 2018, he’s transformed it all. He brings with him calmness, reliability, and world-class shot-stopping.
So, when something like injury, suspension, or other issues rule him out, it ripples through the entire squad. But just how much does it affect Liverpool’s chances of winning?
The Backbone of Liverpool’s Defence
Alisson isn’t just one of the best goalkeepers in the Premier League—he’s considered to be one of the best in the world. He can make the most incredible saves in one-on-one situations, be in total control of the box during set pieces, and play out from the back – and he’s definitely been one of the reasons Liverpool has won the Premier League, Champions League, FA Cup, and more.
When Alisson plays, Liverpool has a better defensive record, concedes fewer goals and has more clean sheets. It’s as simple as that. His calmness means the team can reset under pressure and keep possession. Essentially, he’s not just a goalkeeper; he’s one of the most important cogs in a very well-oiled machine.
His Replacement
When Alisson is out, we’re normally treated to Irish Caoimhín Kelleher, who, in fairness, is a very talented understudy. He’s confident and composed in his own right and has a decent track record. However, although he does show promise, he just doesn’t have the experience and consistency we get from Alisson.
When it’s high pressure – with tight league games, European cup competition, or games against the top 6 teams—his lack of experience can show – especially when it comes down to things like making on-the-spot decisions, positioning, and organising the whole defence.
The Statistical Impact
If we look at some of the previous seasons, Liverpool’s win percentage drops somewhat when Alisson isn’t playing. For example:
- With Alisson: Win rates are usually around 70–75%
- Without Alisson: The win rate dips quite considerably and is closer to 55–60%
It might not seem massively significant, but over the course of a season, it can be all the difference between getting the top spot and a top-four battle… or Champions League survival vs. an early bath.
Moreover, the number of goals conceded per game increases without Alisson – jumping from around 0.8–1.0 goals per game to 1.4 or even higher, obviously depending on the quality of the opposition. Liverpool’s defence just feels a lot more uncertain and shaky, and opponents end up taking more chances when they know that Alisson isn’t there to guard the net.
Psychological Influence
However, it doesn’t just weaken Liverpool in terms of the stats—it can also affect the whole psychology of the team.
- Mistakes Under Pressure: Defenders could feel less secure, which could lead to silly mistakes when they’re put under pressure.
- Team Lacks Confidence: The team seems to lack confidence when playing from the back, which often means more long balls and rushed clearances (which can lead to bad, risky mistakes).
- Opponents Gain Confidence: Opponents get more confident and attack a lot more fiercely.
What’s more, Alisson’s sweeping ability—the way he rushes out to cut off through balls or acts as an extra outfield player—can be a huge tactical asset to the squad. And, without that, Liverpool has to play deeper and protect the backup keeper.
Fixture Matters
Then, we also have to consider which games Alisson is actually missing. If it’s during a particularly important time or busy time—like a title-deciding stretch of games or a Champions League knockout tie—the impact seems even bigger.
If they’re playing against one of the top 6 rivals, not having Alisson can be a massive loss. These can be incredibly tight matches – where just one mistake or moment of brilliance can change the whole outcome, win or lose. Ultimately, Becker is the number one keeper for a reason – and when he’s guarding the net, it’s fair to say we all feel a bit safer! So, let’s hope he doesn’t go out injured again any time soon – until the Reds are guaranteed the EPL 2025 title, at least!