After just 11 games in this Premier League season, Liverpool’s title defence is already looking extremely fragile. The Reds find themselves in eighth place in the table and trailing leaders Arsenal by eight points. It is not as though Arne Slot’s side have simply been unlucky either. The table is a fair reflection of their unconvincing performances this season.
The Premier League is a marathon not a sprint however, and eight points is not an insurmountable gap with 27 matches left. Is there any realistic hope of the Reds becoming serious title contenders though, or will their slim hopes soon disappear?
What Do the Bookies Say?
Liverpool began the season trading at 7/4 to successfully defend their title. After making it five wins from five in the league, following a 2-1 triumph over Everton, they reached an odds-on price. Skip forward just six games later, however, and the Reds now find themselves trading around 10/1, distinct outsiders behind Arsenal and Man City. These odds convert to an implied probability of 9.1%, close to the calculation of the Opta supercomputer, which gives Liverpool a 7.6% chance of winning the title.
We are not talking about if Liverpool can finish in first place here mind you, only if they become credible title contenders. This is a lower bar, but still not an easy one to meet given how impressive Arsenal and Man City look. There is some hope of them pulling it off, but for it to happen Arne Slot will need to act fast before the Reds drop any more points.
What Do Liverpool Need to Improve?
The two clubs firmly in the title race at this early stage are Arsenal and Man City. What you will notice is that they are both scoring far more goals than average, while conceding far fewer.
| Goals Scored | Goals Conceded | |
|---|---|---|
| Arsenal | 20 | 5 |
| Man City | 23 | 8 |
| League Average | 15 | 15 |
| Liverpool | 18 | 17 |
Liverpool, meanwhile, are scoring goals at a decent rate but conceding far too many for a serious title contender. It is not as though they are at all unlucky to concede this many goals, either. Their expected goals against figure sits at 17.51, which is the fifth worst in the entire division. This is a stark contrast to last year when they won the title with the second-best defensive record in the league.
Unlike last year, the Reds have issues at full-back that do not seem to have an easy solution. On the left side, neither an aging Andy Robertson nor new recruit Milos Kerkez have managed to impress. The situation is little better on the right with Conor Bradley failing to shine and Jeremie Frimpong having an injury-riddled start to his Liverpool career. The absence of Alisson in goal has no doubt played its part too, but the Liverpool rearguard was looking shaky even before his absence.
Some modest improvements may occur when the Brazilian returns, potentially before December, but it will not fix the issue that Liverpool concede far too many chances. To make matters worse, a long-term injury to Giovanni Leoni leaves Liverpool very light in the centre of defence. The only senior backup to van Dijk and Konate is Joe Gomez, a player who saw just 510 minutes of league action last season. Should either Van Dijk or Konate face a spell on the sidelines, this Liverpool defence could easily go from bad to worse.
Slot may consider a tactical tweak to improve matters, but with few solid defensive options in reserve, the Dutchman is limited in what he can do. Teams have figured out that the Merseysiders do not enjoy defending long balls and it has become an increasingly common tactic from opposition teams. Rather than teams fearing Liverpool and sitting back, they now think they can have a go and start throwing bodies forward. This has seen Liverpool involved in more end-to-end matches this season, featuring chances at both ends.
Big Names Need Time
While defensive woes may continue for Liverpool, there is reason to believe their attack can improve and help compensate for this. Alexander Isak has been a total flop so far, but the Swede has not suddenly turned into a bad player. Once his confidence and fitness return in full, which is surely only a matter of time, expect him to begin firing in the goals. Fellow summer recruit Florian Writz is another who has struggled to adapt to his new home, but he reminded us once again on international duty how much talent he has.
Sometimes big money signings simply end up flopping, especially in the Premier League, but few have been as gifted as Wirtz. It is far too soon to write the 22-year-old off, and given some patience, he can become a real asset to this Liverpool team. Finally, there is Mohamed Salah, who began this season uncharacteristically slowly. Fortunately, the Egyptian has looked brighter of late and looks set to contribute more in the way of goals and assists.
Potential attacking improvements are unlikely to completely make up for defensive deficiencies though. This makes a serious title charge seem unlikely in our opinion, unless Arsenal and Man City go off the boil – and it seems almost impossible that both would do so.